Adrian Dittman
2025-01-10 21:42:16 UTC
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Not an anomaly: 2020's red states have higher murder rates
Alexi McCammond
Alexi McCammond
Reproduced from Third Way; Chart: Axios Visuals
The murder rates in Trump-voting states from 2020 have exceeded those in
Biden-voting states every year since 2000, according to a new analysis by
ThirdWay, a center-left think tank.
Why it matters: Republicans have built their party on being the
crime-fighting candidates, even as murder rates in red states have
outpaced blue states by an average of 23% over the past two decades.
Four reliably-red states consistently made the top of the list
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Missouri.
Driving the news: Third Way's report analyzed homicide data for all 50
states from 2000 through 2020, using CDC data.
They used the 2020 presidential election results to characterize "red
states" from the "blue states." The findings build on a previous
Third
Way report that only analyzed murder rates from 2019-2020. This time,
they write, they wanted "to see if this one-year Red State murder
epidemic was an anomaly."
Zoom out: In Oct. 2022 just before the 2022 midterm elections a
record-high 56% of Americans said there was more crime where they live,
per Gallup.
That included 73% of Republicans and a whopping 51% of Independents.
Both parties rushed to spend tens of millions of dollars on crime ads
that month.
Between the lines: The political implications don't always match the
reality.
"Crime has historically been a very potent political issue. Its also
very anecdote driven," said Jim Kessler, Third Way's executive vice
president for policy. Murder isn't the only crime committed or
discussed, but Third Way hopes to combat the "media and political
narrative that crime is a Democratic problem, occurring mostly in big
blue cities and fueled by lax policies," they write.
What to watch: Democratic messaging on the issue in the 2024 cycle and
whether there are renewed divisions between Democratic Party leaders and
members of Congress particularly after party infighting blamed
progressives defund the police slogan for down-ballot losses in 2020.
President Biden reiterated his views just last week when he told a
group of bipartisan mayors gathering in D.C. that handling public
safety shouldn't involve defunding police departments.
Methodology: Data is based on death certificates collected by state
registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System. To allow
for comparison, Third Way calculated the states per capita murder rate,
the number of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states by
their presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25
state split.
